商业地产受到冲击

图片来源 博客innova.

When Worlds Collide: How the Internet Has Disrupted Real Estate.

While I was preparing a 现在ation to the San Antonio Executive Association, a club of 150 small business owners in San Antonio it hit me the tremendous extent that each real estate sector has been disrupted by the internet. 这是世界碰撞时发生的事情.

零售

This disruption began 10 years ago when E-Commerce struck shopping. 现在 we can place orders for goods by computer or cell phone. Many bankruptcies ensued: Sears, Kmart, Toys Us, Borders Books, Circuit City, Pier One, Brooks Bros. 以及最近的Bed Bath and Beyond. Brick and Mortar became Bricks and Clicks and the “Death of 零售” was trumpeted. 好吧, it was evolution not mass destruction as retailers were forced to adapt and then, 毫无疑问，新冠病毒加快了这一进程. 现在转型已经到位，零售业也做得很好. Maybe a shopping mall got turned into a hockey rink or distribution center. McCreless Mall became a super-HEB, Windsor Park Mall became Rackspace and now who knows what. 现在, 零售商已经走向了全渠道, so that the bricks and the clicks have become very interdependent. 我们将生存和繁荣.

工业

工业 began disruption for good and not evil at the beginning of Covid, 当次日送达变得非常重要时. USAA Real Estate even built 100 Amazon distribution centers across the country. 你可以看到新的200,000 SF plus distribution centers being built across San Antonio, 特别是在Schertz的IH-10东部和IH-35上. “最后一英里”的输送系统相当完善, but now comes logistical centers to support new supply chain demands. 工业有很光明的前途.

办公室

办公大楼, 另一方面, are now undergoing disruption that appears very bad for that sector’s owners. The technology of Work-From-365bet苹果客户端 (WFH) society began with zoom calls replacing in-person meetings. 现在, with Covid, occupancy in offices buildings has declined. In San Antonio rented area is only about 80%, versus the old standard of around 88%. 但实际占用率可能只有50%或更低. The new work week is WFH on Monday and Friday and in the office Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

酒店

酒店正在经历混乱, 太, from the advent of Short-Term Rental websites like Airbnb and VRBO, 然后是新冠肺炎疫情的双重打击. 如今，“复仇游”的反弹正如火如荼. Airbnb is growing strongly, with over 7-million homes for rent now, compared to 5.美国有300万间酒店客房.S.! And, of course, on-line booking is the norm now for every operator. 计算机使动态定价成为可能, so that your room rates may change within the matter of a few minutes based on the immediate demand for rooms in the market. 这也被自助存储行业所采用.

住宅地产

住宅地产 is a different world from commercial, but disruption knows no bounds. Sellers will check out neighboring properties to see what they should ask for their property, 他们会在房地产经纪人那里找到这些信息.com, Zillow.Com和redfin.Com列出几个显示价格信息的网站. 买家可以在网上查看房源, drive neighborhoods by google street view and gather other information, 这一切都发生在他们开车去旅游之前. 他们甚至有资格获得网上贷款.

然而，这都是过去的事了 & 现在. 未来呢?? National Association of Realtors just lost a lawsuit for what was termed collusion. It is standard practice that residential realtors belong to a local board and that includes membership in the Multiple Listing Service. This requires the seller’s broker to offer compensation to the buyer’s broker, and the amounts or percentages are filled in by the seller’s broker.

The lawsuit turned on whether this created collusion for commission of the buyer’s rep, 因为他的佣金没有商量. This ruling doesn’t force the buyer to pay his broker instead of being paid by the Seller, but it does mean that the commission must be negotiated as part of the contract, 而不仅仅是由卖方代表设定. 许多代理商和经纪人专门从事买方代表, 这将会改变, 很可能会降低他们的收入. 但在买方市场, 像现在, maybe Seller’s will have to increase the amount to buyer’s brokers in order to get more showings.

商业经纪

商业经纪 will be greatly impacted in the future by opening up more access to listings through internet websites, 比如LoopNet，以及更强的人工智能增强.   If buyers and tenants can see all the available properties online and make their own lists of what they think will work, 然后买方/租户代表就被排除在业务之外. 可以在线设置展映, screening the prospect’s financial strength can be done through an on-line application and credit checks, access to the space or building can be controlled over the internet and I suppose the broker or even the owner himself could talk the buyer/tenant through the space on their cell phone. Contracts and leases can be filled out online and signed through your computer. Even closings can be done largely remotely using a mobile notary, since the old-fashioned blue ink wet signature is still required for final authorizations. This is called disintermediation, removing intermediaries from the transaction.

Will this reduce commissions paid by the parties to the transactions? Will the removal of the brokers expertise lead to tragic mistakes by the parties? 从我个人的经历来看, that the broker’s skills and knowledge developed over years of transactions are greatly devalued because they are “free” until the transaction is completed. No one has any concern about wasting large amounts of the broker’s time, because it is given away by the broker to try to land a deal and close it. Should the model become like an attorney or accountant who can bill by the hour and collect a retainer upfront? 我怀疑这永远不会发生.